Ukrainian troops pulling back from Kharkiv means a very hot summer and a wider war

Comment

Ukrainian troops pulling back from Kharkiv means a very hot summer and a wider war

WEST END FINAL

Get our award-winning daily news email featuring exclusive stories, opinion and expert analysis

I would like to be emailed about offers, event and updates from Evening Standard. Read our privacy notice.

The Russian attacks on nearly a dozen villages in the Kharkiv sector of northeast Ukraine threaten a major breakthrough at the opening of a rolling summer offensive. The situation is described by Ukrainians as “dynamic” and President Volodymyr Zelensky has swiftly replaced his Kharkiv commander.

The European and American western allies seem only partly aware of what Ukrainian defeat may bring — though Rishi Sunak and Emmanuel Macron have begun to sound the alarm. Victory around Kharkiv won’t bring peace. More likely, we face a very hot summer and a wider war.

Ukraine’s forces are still short on the ammunition and weaponry they asked for all winter — the new supplies of shells, drones and electronic warfare kit won’t be there in quantity for weeks. More significant, perhaps, has been President Biden’s prohibition about providing missiles that can strike into Russian territory.

This lack meant Russian forces could walk across the border into the Kharkiv area almost unopposed. It also does little to mitigate Russia’s dominance in the close air battle over the front lines. Their new combinations of drones, old fashioned glide bombs launched from bombers way back over Russian territory, and a new prowess in electronic warfare, is giving them the initiative.

Victory around Kharkiv won’t bring peace. More likely, we face a very hot summer and a wider war

The most powerful indicator that Vladimir Putin is planning a long war is the change made at the top in the Kremlin. Sergei Shoigu has been shifted sideways and replaced as defence minister by Andrei Belousov, an economist with expertise in the digital economy and promoting cutting-edge industrial innovation, including the production of drones.

Shoigu wasn’t military, either, being an engineer appointed by Putin in 2012 to clean up rampant defence sector corruption. He didn’t do too well in that — Moscow has just fired his deputy on corruption grounds. Belousov is there to make the war economy run and run for years and push innovation in the new tools of cyber and hybrid warfare — developing the use of artificial intelligence, integrating new North Korean, Chinese and Iranian missiles, and the autonomous weaponry now appearing on the battlefront.

Confrontation with the West will be as much on and below the sea, in space and cyberspace. Russia sees itself as a global maritime power, and is pushing back not only in the Baltic and Black Sea, but the Arctic, the Red Sea, Gulf and Indian Ocean, where its ships have been exercising with Chinese, Iranian, Pakistan and Indian units.

More telling was the report of continuous cyber incursions and attacks, continuous surveillance of vulnerable offshore and underwater assets, communication cables, oil and gas pipelines and terminals, wind farms.

A collision with Russia is sure to be exploited by China to its own, aggressive, advantage. Meeting the new global security has put defence firmly into this autumn’s election debates.

The signals from Kharkiv suggest we need to curtail the debate and get ready now — action this day.

Robert Fox is the Evening Standard’s defence editor

Create a FREE account to continue reading

eros

Registration is a free and easy way to support our journalism.

Join our community where you can: comment on stories; sign up to newsletters; enter competitions and access content on our app.

Your email address

Must be at least 6 characters, include an upper and lower case character and a number

You must be at least 18 years old to create an account

* Required fields

Already have an account? SIGN IN

By clicking Create Account you confirm that your data has been entered correctly and you have read and agree to our Terms of use , Cookie policy and Privacy policy .

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged in